Supply levels improving for higher-priced homes
Sales gains for homes priced above $600,000 offset declines at the lower end of the market, resulting in October sales that were similar to last year. The 2,174 sales in October increased over September and stood 24 per cent above long-term trends for the month.
“Housing demand has stayed relatively strong in our market as we move into the fourth quarter, with October sales rising over last month,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “However, activity would likely have been stronger if more supply choices existed for lower-priced homes. Supply levels in our market are improving relative to the ultra-low levels experienced last year, but much of the gains have been driven by higher-priced units for each property type. This results in conditions far more balanced in the upper end of the market versus the seller’s market conditions in the lower to mid-price ranges of each property type.”
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The following data is a comparison between October 2024 and October 2023 numbers, and is current as of November of 2024. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic.
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New listing growth driven by higher-priced homes
Rising sales in the upper price ranges were not enough to offset the pullback occurring in the lower price ranges, as sales in September were 2,003, 17 per cent below last year’s record high. Despite the decline, sales this month were still over 16 per cent higher than levels traditionally achieved in September.
“We are starting to see a rise in new listings in our market. However, most of the listing growth is occurring in the higher price ranges,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “While demand has stayed strong across all price ranges, the limited choice for lower-priced homes has likely prevented stronger sales in our market. While the challenges in the lower price ranges are not expected to change, improved supply combined with lower lending rates should keep demand strong throughout the fall, but without the extreme seller market conditions that contributed to the rapid price growth earlier this year.”
New listings in September rose to 3,687 units, the highest September total since 2008. This rise in new listings compared to sales did support some inventory growth. September inventory levels pushed up to 5,064 units, nearly double the exceptionally low levels reported in the spring, but remain below the 6,000 units we typically see in September.
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The following data is a comparison between September 2024 and September 2023 numbers, and is current as of October of 2024. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic.
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Calgary housing market sees shifts
Housing activity continues to move away from the extreme sellers’ market conditions experienced throughout the spring. Easing sales, combined with gains in supply, pushed the months of supply above two months in August, a level not seen since the end of 2022.
“As expected, rising new home construction and gains in new listings are starting to support a better-supplied housing market,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “This trend is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the year, but it’s important to note that supply levels remain low, especially for lower-priced properties. It will take time for supply levels to return to those that support more balanced conditions.”
Inventory levels in August reached 4,487 units, 37 per cent higher than last August but nearly 25 per cent lower than long-term trends for the month. Higher-priced properties mostly drove the supply gains, as the most affordable homes in each property type continued to report supply declines.
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The following data is a comparison between August 2024 and August 2023 numbers, and is current as of September of 2024. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic.
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Supply levels improve taking some pressure off prices
With the busy spring market behind us, we are starting to see some shifts in supply levels. With 2,380 sales and 3,604 new listings, the sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 66 per cent, supporting a gain in inventory. Inventories rose to 4,158 units, still 33 per cent below what we typically see in July, but the first time they have pushed above 4,000 units in nearly two years. Although the majority of supply growth occurred for homes priced above $600,000, the rise has helped shift the market away from the extreme sellers’ market conditions experienced throughout the spring.
“While we are still dealing with supply challenges, especially for lower-priced homes, more options in both the new home and resale market have helped take some of the upward pressure off home prices this month,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “This is in line with our expectations for the second half of the year, and should inventories continue to rise, we should start to see more balanced conditions and stability in home prices.”
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The following data is a comparison between July 2024 and July 2023 numbers, and is current as of August of 2024. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic.
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June sales decline amid supply challenges and rising prices
Sales in June reached 2,738, marking a 13 percent decline from last year’s record high. Although sales improved for homes priced above $700,000, it was not enough to offset the declines reported in the lower price ranges. Despite the easing in June sales, they remain over 17 percent higher than long-term trends.
“The pullback in sales reflects supply challenges in the lower price ranges, ultimately limiting sales activity,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “Inventory in the lower price ranges of each property type continue to fall, providing limited choices for potential purchasers looking for more affordable product. It also continues to be a competitive market for some buyers with over 40 percent of the homes sold selling over list price.”
This month, new listings also eased relative to sales, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to remain elevated at 72 percent. Inventory levels did improve over last year’s low levels, primarily due to gains in the higher price ranges. However, with 3,789 units available, levels remain 40 percent lower than long-term trends. The modest change in inventory levels helped increase the months of supply.
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The following data is a comparison between June 2024 and June 2023 numbers, and is current as of July of 2024. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic.
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Calgary home sales remain robust despite supply shortages in lower price ranges
In a market that continues to show resilience, May saw a total of 3,092 resale home sales. While this figure is nearly one per cent below last year’s record high, it is 34 per cent higher than long-term trends for the month.
The pullback in sales was primarily driven by declines in lower-priced detached and semi-detached homes, where there was limited supply choice compared to last year.
“Although new listings have increased, much of this growth is in higher price ranges for each property type,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “Our strong economic situation has supported sales growth in these higher price ranges. However, this month’s sales could not offset the declines in the lower price ranges due to a lack of supply choice.”
New listings in May reached 4,333 units, almost 19 per cent higher than last year. This increase in new listings compared to sales caused the sales-to-new listings ratio to drop to 71 per cent, supporting a modest year-over-year inventory gain. Despite this, inventory levels remained nearly half what we typically see in May, with most gains driven by homes priced above $700,000.
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The following data is a comparison between May 2024 and May 2023 numbers, and is current as of June of 2024. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic.
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Price growth persists in Calgary as Seller’s market prevails
Sales in April rose by seven per cent compared to last year, to 2,881 units. While the pace of growth did ease compared to earlier in the year, sales remain 37 per cent higher than long-term trends for the month. Much of the growth in sales has occurred for relatively more affordable, higher-density products. At the same time, there were 3,491 new listings in April, a 11 per cent gain over last year but only three per cent higher than long-term trends. The rise in new listings compared to sales prevented any further deterioration of the inventory situation. However, with 2,711 units in inventory, levels are 16 per cent below last year and half of what is traditionally seen in April.
“While supply levels are still declining, much of the decline has been driven by lower-priced homes,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “Homes priced below $500,000 have reported a 29 per cent decline. Meanwhile, we are seeing supply growth in homes priced above $700,000. Persistently high-interest rates are driving demand toward more affordable products in the market and, at the same time, driving listing growth for higher-priced properties.”
With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 83 per cent and a months of supply of less than one month, conditions continue to favour the seller, driving further price gains in the market. In April, the unadjusted total residential benchmark price reached $603,700, a one per cent gain over last month and nearly 10 per cent higher than last year’s levels. Price gains occurred across all property types and districts of the city. The strongest price growth occurred in the more affordable districts of the city.
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The following data is a comparison between April 2024 and April 2023 numbers, and is current as of May 2024. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic.
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March reflects strong seller’s market and price increases
March sales rose to 2,664 units, a 10 per cent year-over-year gain and much higher than long-term trends. While new listings did pick up over last month, the 3,172 units were still below what we typically see in March and not enough relative to sales to drive any change in the supply situation. In March, the sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 84 per cent, and the months of supply fell below one month.
“We have not seen March conditions this tight since 2006, which is also the last time we reported high levels of interprovincial migration and a months-of-supply below one month,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “Moreover, we are entering the third consecutive year of a market favouring the seller as the two-year spike in migration has driven up demand and contributed to the drop in re-sale and rental supply. Given supply adjustments take time, it is not a surprise that we continue to see upward pressure on home prices.”
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The following data is a comparison between March 2024 and March 2023 numbers, and is current as of April 2024. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic.
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Low inventory and high demand drive price gains in February
New listings continued to rise in February, reaching 2,711 units. However, the rise in new listings supported further growth in sales, which increased by nearly 23 per cent compared to last year for a total of 2,135 units. The shift in sales and new listings kept the sales to new listings ratio exceptionally high at 79 per cent ensuring inventories remained near historic lows.
Low supply and higher sales caused the months of supply to fall to just over one month, nearly as tight as levels seen during the spring of last year. “Purchasers are acting quickly when new supply comes onto the market, preventing inventory growth in the market,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®.
“It is this strong demand and low supply that continues to drive price gains in Calgary. The biggest supply challenge is for homes priced under $500,000, which saw inventories fall by 31 per cent compared to last February. At the same time, we are starting to see supply levels rise for higher priced homes supporting more balanced conditions in the upper end.”
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The following data is a comparison between February 2024 and February 2023 numbers, and is current as of March 2024. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic.
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January sees strong sales fueled by boost in new listings
January sales rose to 1,650 units, a significant gain over last year’s levels and long-term trends. The growth was possible thanks to a rise in new listings totalling 2,137 units in January. New listings rose for homes priced above $300,000, but the largest gains occurred for homes priced above $700,000.
The rise in new listings relative to sales did little to change the low inventory situation in the city. With 2,150 units in inventory, levels are near the January record lows set in 2006 and are nearly 49 per cent below the long-term average for the month.
“Supply challenges have been a persistent problem since last year. This month’s gain in new listings has helped provide options to potential purchasers, supporting sales growth. However, the growth in sales prevented any significant adjustments in supply, keeping conditions tight and supporting further price growth,” stated Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®.
Read the full report on the CREB website!
The following data is a comparison between January 2024 and January 2023 numbers, and is current as of February 2024. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic.
Or follow this link for all our CREB Infographics!
Click on the images for a larger view!
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